Monday, November 3, 2008

Good stuff from internal poll data

NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll shows Obama with a significant 8% lead nationally. To put this in perspective, the final poll before the '04 election showed Bush ahead by 1%.

But here's what is really interesting:

Looking inside the numbers, Obama leads McCain among African Americans (90 percent to 3 percent), Latinos (68 to 27), 18- to 34-year-olds (59 to 38), independents (48 to 38), blue-collar voters (51 to 44), suburban voters (49 to 44) and Catholics (49 to 46).

McCain, meanwhile, has the advantage among evangelicals (78 percent to 19 percent), those 65 years old and older (53 to 40), white men (54 to 42) and white women (48 to 47).

This is not good news for McCain. Despite how loud and obnoxious they tend to be, evangelicals are not a huge portion of the electorate, and that lead isn't going to be able to overcome Obama's advantage in the other groups. Plus, evangelicals tend to concentrate themselves in states where McCain is already strong, and that's not going to help him in the purple states either. If McCain gets 100% of the evangelical vote in (for example) Utah, Oklahoma, and Idaho, it won't help him get to 270. Now, I will say that the evangelical vote might help him in certain purple states like Missouri, Virginia, and Colorado, but we'll just have to see where the chips fall.

McCain's leads with other groups are close enough that they're really not going to give McCain any kind of an advantage. Add to these statistics the massive number of early voters and the huge surge in vote from those groups who are supporting Obama in large numbers and you paint a pretty bleak picture for McCain.