Thursday, July 3, 2008

The myth of a 'close race'

Corporate media types keep calling this a 'close race' between Obama and McCain. They base this on the fact that national polls keep showing about a 5% lead for Obama, which they're quick to point out is "well within the margin of error."

Smart people who went to High School Social Studies class will recall that we don't actually have a national Presidential election in this country. We have 50 separate state elections for President, each of which sends a certain number of electors to the Electoral College. Thus, a national poll of the Presidential race is irrelevant and meaningless. The only polls that actually matter are state polls.

If you'll look to your right (assuming you're on my blog and not reading this from somewhere else) at the widget that tracks state polls and calculates a projected Electoral College vote, you'll see that this is, in fact, not at all a close race. Obama currently leads 317 to 221, with plenty of wiggle room in Obama's favor - i.e. "weak" or "barely" Republican states.

You can also go through my polling analysis of a couple of weeks ago, which I worked very hard to compile, to get another idea of where we stand (well, where we stood as of a couple of weeks ago, which, if it's changed at all, has changed in Obama's favor.)

Bottom line - this is not as close of a race as the corporate media would have you believe.