Wednesday, March 5, 2008


Alright, so. The math is such that it is extremely unlikely that either candidate will get the 2,025 delegates needed before the convention. Hillary is now hinting at the "Dream Ticket." The next major primary is in Pennsylvania in seven weeks. I see several possibilities emerging:

1) Clinton and Obama keep bashing at each other, giving more and more ammunition to McCain for the general election, ending in a contentious convention that is decided by superdelegates. This scenario is the most dangerous, and, frankly, stupid, for the Democratic Party.
2) One of them concedes in a grand gesture for party unity. This is very unlikely.
3) The two of them come together in a joint ticket. This possiblitiy raises two additional questions: a) When will this happen, and b) Who will be on top?

If #3 is to happen, it needs to happen soon, so that the party can come together around the ticket and minimize the damage that the two campaigns have done against each other thus far. I don't think it would be a good thing for this campaign to drag on till Pennsylvania, especially if the tone continues to be as negative as it has.

As I see it, the most likely scenario is for Obama to defer to Clinton, not the other way around. Clinton's campaign is almost pathologically stubborn, based on a grim determination to win. Obama's campaign, on the other hand, is, at least in theory, based on bringing people together in a broad coalition, and the energy is much more positively focused. It might, therefore, be an easier thing for him to accept a place as Clinton's VP than the other way around, and would allow the party faithful to rally around the ticket. The only problem is that then Clinton would have to do some major backpedaling and spinning to justify putting her bitter rival on the ticket after denouncing his inexperience over and over again.

Then again, as I write this, I'm second-guessing myself. Obama's campaign is also based on a fervent belief in Obama, and if he concedes to Clinton, it might disillusion some of his followers. Both campaigns are so entrenched, so dug in, that it will be a huge challenge for either of them to concede to the other, even if they end up sharing the ticket.

It's murky as hell right now, and I'm not happy about that. I was really hoping we'd have a nominee by this point...

We'll see what happens.